Big Bull-y in China Shop
Date: April 10, 2025. Venue: Nehru Gardens, New Delhi. Time: 7.30 am. Two veteran economists – retired academics and former economic advisers to the government, sadly no longer invited to TV debates – had finished morning walk, but were not too keen to return home where spouse would remind about To-Do-List for the day - get the AC serviced, call the plumber to fix the leaking faucet, seek appointment with orthopaedic, etc. They sat down on a bench to discuss the state of the world and the country. Today’s discussion was about Trump tariffs and how the world and India may deal with this catastrophe. To retaliate or to reconcile was the question. As usual, they had strong opinions, animated discussion, and passionately disagreed with each other.
E 1: Trump and Modi are chums, that’s why India got away with only 26 per cent, a mere slap on the wrist. Look how he has mauled China?
E 2: Our exports are doomed. No way can the exporters take a 26 per cent tariff. Friend’s dagger thrust may kill.
‘India should be pragmatic. It must negotiate with US and eliminate or substantially reduce tariff on most of its exports. PM is on the right path.’
‘India should retaliate like China, Canada, and EU. We must protect our self-interest. We can’t ruin our economy to MAGA. We must MIGA.’
‘This is no TV debate, so why don’t we stop screaming and present our point of view dispassionately?’
Another morning walker, doing his stretches nearby, joined in the conversation.
‘Permit me to say so, gentlemen. Both of you seem erudite, but are wrong.’
‘Who are you, Sir? An economist? Do you have a Ph.D. from Harvard or LSE?’
‘No. That’s why I think differently.’
‘What’s your valuable recommendation, or may I say magic solution, to save the global economy and ours?’
‘It’s really simple. India should follow the Gandhian way, and inspire the world to follow suit.’
‘Drink goat milk, practice brahmacharya, truth and non-violence?’
‘Save your witticisms, Sir. In such a situation, Gandhi would have launched a peaceful, non-cooperation movement. Remember the boycott of British clothes during our Freedom Struggle? That’s what all Indians and the people of RoW should do.’
‘How is it possible to non-cooperate with No. 1 economy of the world? It’d be ruinous, the medicine more lethal than the disease.’
‘No, it won’t. It’s as simple as ABC.’
‘Pray, enlighten us further.’
‘A for Arms. Boycott US defence exports. RoW which imported $ 318.7 billion arms and defence equipment in 2024 may agree on an armistice for a year, maintain status-quo in all border disputes, and buy no defence equipment from US.’
‘What’s the source of your data, Sir?’
‘Statista, who else? Let me proceed further.
A for Apple. Stop buying that expensive toy, Chinese and South Korean smartphones have all those features and are way cheaper. Security concern is a bogey raised by the US.
A for Alphabet (or G for Google, if you prefer), A for Amazon, A for Almonds (why not use Kashmiri almonds instead?).
B for BYD. RoW should buy electric cars from BYD, not Tesla. Buy Airbus, not Boeing. Boycott Harley-Davidson, too.
C for Coca cola (and Pepsi, too). Boycott American beverages, both alcoholic and non-alcoholic. Indian now produces excellent whiskeys and wines in additional to traditional soothing drinks – sikanji, jal-jeera, aam-pana, haldi-dooth, etc.
Just imagine,
RoW abstains from consuming Pepsi or Coca Cola only for a day. Of their daily
sales of about 6 billion servings of beverages, 4.6 billion servings would
remain unsold choking their stores and outlets. The shockwaves would travel to
Harrison, New York – Hq. of PepsiCo, and to Atlanta – Hq. of Coca Cola; and
therefrom to White House, and to Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach, Florida. How about
that Swift Messaging system?’
‘Well, we get the point.’
‘No, I’m not done yet. E for Education. More than a million foreign students, mostly from India and China, contributed $43.8 billion to the US economy and supported 378000 jobs in 2023-24. RoW should boycott American colleges and universities.’
F for Facebook (and WhatsApp).
H for Hollywood, N for Netflix. RoW should stop spending money on entertainment offered by US since the country no longer amuses non-Americans!
K for KFC; M for Mineral Oils including crude oil (US export in 2023 - $348 billion), M for Mondelez; P for Pepsi, S for Starbucks (We got filter kaapi, Suleimani chai, adrak-kali mirch chai and many others).
T for Tourism. RoW stops holidaying in the US.’
‘Please stop. Your argument is convincing, but unimplementable. How can countries and consumers be persuaded to launch a non-cooperation movement?’
‘A bull in a china shop can cause much havoc; amply demonstrated by Trump Tariff which has shaken the world, and broken the fine architecture of rule-based global trade developed over several decades. It’s no longer a trade war between two economic giants – US and China; it affects every country and all people in the world. Rest of the World (RoW) is now the china shop, and must collaborate to rein in the bull, and call the Big Bully’s bluff.
US has issued an ultimatum. During the 90-day reprieve, RoW must kowtow, seek forgiveness from the Lord and Master of all he surveys, and sign the bilateral trade agreements to MAGA.
Hence, the time to act is now. People of India must show the way. For the next three months, they should boycott all American products. Begin small and symbolic by shunning Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Starbucks, McDonald, KFC, and others. RoW would follow suit. The Big Bully would get the message. He’s not the sun around which RoW, the vassal planets must revolve.’
‘Time to go home, Sir. Thanks for your radical ideas and inspiring speech. Btw, did you propose de-monetisation to the PM?’
***
Postscript
Trump Tariffs on non-humans
Trump has
imposed tariffs on two uninhabited islands – Heard & McDonald!
Apr 11, 2025:
China limits
Hollywood Films (Economic Times).
China lets
Yuan slide to support economy (Economic Times).
Cost of
iPhone in US: Made in China - $2000; Made in India - $1200; Made in USA - $2500?
Apr 12, 2025:
China imposes
125% tariff on US goods in retaliation to Trump’s tariff of 134% on Chinese
goods.
Great and interesting thought about New economic crises created by U.S.
ReplyDeleteCreative thinking I must say 👍
ReplyDelete